System Dynamic Modeling

“Systems dynamics models are one way to illustrate and model the dynamic change in systems. They have been primarily used to examine the potential undesired consequences of organizational decision making.

The field of system dynamics, created at MIT in the 1950s by Jay Forrester, is designed to help decision makers learn about the structure and dynamics of complex systems, to design high leverage policies for sustained improvement, and to catalyze successful implementation and change. System dynamics provides a framework for dealing with dynamic complexity, where cause and effect are not obviously related. It is grounded in the theory of nonlinear dynamics and feedback control, but it also draws on cognitive and social psychology, organization theory, economics, and other social sciences. System dynamics models are formal and can be executed. The models and simulators help to capture complex dynamics and to create an environment for organizational learning and policy design.  System dynamics is particularly relevant in safety engineering when analyzing the organizational aspects of accidents and using STPA on the higher levels of the safety control structure.”

Reference: Leveson, Nancy G. (2011). Engineering a Safer World – Systems Thinking Applied to Safety. MIT Press. 

Technical Tools/Risk Assessment/Quantitative Risk Assessment/Frequency Techniques